Monday, April 8, 2013

The University and Say's Law

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Jean-Baptiste Say was a notable French economist during the early years of the Industrial Revolution.  That revolution was truly revolutionary in the sense of entirely changing how people lived and worked, and the social structures underpinning society.

And in its early years, it was not at all clear to anyone just what was going on.  Say - a big enthusiast of free markets and competition - attempted to explain it.

What's interesting is that the most commonly found statement of Say's Law comes not from Say or his contemporaries, but rather from John Maynard Keynes.  I myself learned Keynes' formulation when I was an 18 year old undergraduate:
Supply creates its own demand.
Basically what Keynes meant was that hey, what was spent building a stock of inventory (say, a factory that creates solar cells) represents money that went into the economy, and so demand overall went up because of the resulting fiscal stimulus.

Well, sure, but that doesn't mean that demand for solar cells went up.  Or more precisely, if I spend $500M to build something, that doesn't mean that anyone else will think it's worth $500M.  This is the well, duh school of economic analysis in action.

And so the the University.  Universities have for years - since the years shortly after World War II - been telling people that a University degree is the ticket to a high paying job.  Just as in the early years of the Industrial Revolution it appeared that there was an inexhaustible demand for cotton fabrics, it appeared for decades that modern economies had an inexhaustible demand for University graduates.  And so the diploma mills mushroomed, because after all supply creates its own demand, right?
In an article published in the journal Human Relations, Belgin Okay-Somerville (PhD, Human Resource Management) from the University of Aberdeen and Professor (of Human Resource Management) Dora Scholarios from the University of Strathclyde claim that the number of "skilled jobs" no longer matches the number of "skilled workers".

This means that graduates have no choice but to take rubbish jobs or, at best, "intermediate level" positions.
Naturally these are a long way from the sort of jobs once dished out to graduates in the days when a degree was a rare badge of distinction, rather than something which fell out of your cornflakes packet following three years of alcohol-fuelled fornication.

The Scottish-based trick-cyclists surveyed 7,787 graduate employees, finding that just 379 met their criteria for what defines a good job. These smug and satisfied employees worked in managerial, professional or associate professional occupations and had already racked up between 5 and 15 years in the real world after graduating.
But well done on the alcohol-fuelled fornication, not to mention leftie indoctrination!  It's funny how the Professors are so scornful of Say's Law (as expounded by Keynes) when they've been flogging it more any anyone in the Free World for decades.  I guess that Irony 101 is no longer taught at the Academy these days.

5 comments:

ZerCool said...

"[T]he number of 'skilled jobs' no longer matches the number of 'skilled workers'."

Oh, the bitter irony there... because when I look at the economy and the people looking for jobs, it's the letter-laden people with white collars who are begging for work.

Meanwhile, those who eschewed subsidized alcohol-fueled fornication and got some dirt under their nails with a VoPro certificate in a trade... well, those "dumb shop kids" are pretty much writing their own tickets.

Yep, it's hard, dirty, sometimes dangerous, manual labor... but one thing it isn't is "unskilled".

Divemedic said...

Which brings to mind the military flaw in the officer corps that I have been shouting since my won military days:

The fact that you attended a four year alcohol binge called college does not make you qualified to lead men into combat. However, this is the exact qualification that is required to be a military officer, but I served under more than one officer who could not successfully lead a platoon of drunken marines to a whorehouse.

Archer said...

Supply creates its own demand, only - and I emphasize, only - when the product fills a need previously unrecognized, and does so at a price consumers can easily afford.

To imply that the supply in-and-of-itself creates the need is like implying that cow's milk was invented just so Louis Pasteur would have something to disinfect.

TinCan Assassin said...

Are you trying to make me feel better for never having gone to college?

Unknown said...

The best that can be said of my academic background is that I've dropped out of more colleges than Sarah Palin did. Yes, literally.
As a consequence, I don't make spectacular money; on the other hand my needs are met and I'm capable of making a living in any one of several disciplines.

A heartfelt second to what ZerCool said about trade schools. I believe in them firmly. Also, if people with trade-school backgrounds and a few years in the work force want to go to University for degrees they simply find personally appealing, some institutions will be glad to admit them.

A final thought (on this topic): The USA continues to evolve into a National Security state, and shows no sign of stopping--let alone reversing--the trend. In some market sectors (for a given value of 'market', anyway), a security clearance without a degree is already more marketable than a degree without a security clearance. I expect this trend to continue.