Saturday, March 30, 2013

Prediction: No new Federal gun laws for 2 years

Probably more, but that's a 2 year minimum.  The Czar of Muscovy has a very interesting thought up about what's going on with people buying guns.  Specifically, why people are buying guns:
The sheer number of people waiting in impossibly long lines to get their legal documentation in order is evidence that the anti-gun arguments are so bad that ordinary, reasonable, unbiased people are motivated to wait in those long lines.

As Mandarin pointed out, this isn’t just a case of the average American saying “Huh. Well, now that I have heard both sides, I might just look into getting a permit some day.” Rather, the average person is saying “Holy crap! I need to get a weapon now more than ever; and I don’t care how long it takes or what hoops I have to jump through.” That is how bad the gun control debate has gone for them. It doesn’t just suck: you’re driving them to the other side.
Dianne Feinstein, Chuck Schumer, and Michael Bloomberg don't care, which is why they've been spouting off their mouths - which is pouring gasoline on the fire.  Harry Reid and the Red State Democrats (and the Purple State Democrats) do get this.  I doubt very much that Reid was lying when he said that he didn't have 40 votes. 

Democrats are nervous, other than the ones in very blue states.  Gun control is something that is seen as a Democratic Party issue, and has been for 20 years.  The fact that millions of new gun owners are in a panic trying to get guns and ammunition tells you that this issue has penetrated the consciousness of middle America.

As the Czar says, the Democrats are finding that they're driving the electorate into the arms of their opponents.  Remember, an election looms next year.  Memories are short, but not that short.

Some people are worried that a bland vanilla bill will make it to the Senate floor and then a swarm of extremist amendments will be rammed through via legislative sleight of hand.  This won't happen, for many reasons:
  1. The Red state and blue state Democrats don't want to vote on anything here because it's radioactive.  No matter the sleight of hand, at the end of the day you have to vote.
  2. The more extreme the amendment, the more radioactive it will be.  Dianne Feinstein doesn't care, but Joe Manchin sure does.  Harry Reid, for all his faults, knows how to count votes.
  3. The House won't pass it, no matter what the Senate does.  David Boehner has done a masterful job trapping the blue and purple state Democrats: by saying that they'd take up any bill the Senate passed, he gave the green light to the most radical wing of the Democrat Party to push their unwilling middle strongly towards the left.
I believe that the Senate will vote gun control down, in a massive defeat to Obama personally and the radical wing of the Democratic party.  But the damage has been done.

I think that it's even worse for the Democrats.  The main provisions of Obamacare are taking effect this year, and will be entirely in place by 1 January 2014.  Costs will skyrocket, people will be forced to drop their insurance (and be fined for doing so).  We already see hours being cut back for hipster baristas, and this will accelerate.  It will also become very clear just how much Obamacare extracted money from the working class to fund insurance for illegal immigrants.

The costs will bite.  If 5 million people are energized by the spectre of gun control, 20 million will feel the pinch of Obamacare.

And then people will remember that it was the Democrats and not the Republicans that forced this bill on them ("Obamacare", dig?).  There may be mutterings about the illegitimate legislative process that they used to do this.  Republicans of course will have no reason to "fix" the bill; as its unpopularity grows and the voters become increasingly enraged, they will say "Hey! I have an idea!  Let's get rid of this because it's a nightmare".

Next year's elections will be about Gun Control and Obamacare, and nothing else.  The Democrats see this.  That's why no gun control can pass.  Maybe they can ride the rapids of a single massively unpopular bill, but they can't survive two.

11 comments:

JD said...

I hope you are right but DC can be very self destructive when they want to be really stupid

Jay G said...

President Romney and I share JD's hope about this prediction being right...

Sadly, I don't have as much faith in the red state Democrats as you seem to.

I predict a caving. Not full-on AWB, but mag restrictions and universal registration. That's the initial goal.

Biden wasn't lying when he said this was just the start.

Borepatch said...

Jay, why do you think that the red state (and purple state) Democrats think that they could get away with this?

Not asking whether they CAN get away with it, rather why they'd THINK they could. I don't see it, not with all those Obamacare votes handing over their heads.

SiGraybeard said...

BTW, isn't that John Boehner, not David?

I hope you're right, but it looks from here that the fight has moved to the states. Mayor McFascist is dropping teams of lawyers into the state legislatures, bills already written, and apparently accompanied by epic amounts of cash. Remember the Emperor's Fedayeen shock troops in Dune? That seems to be whom Bloomberg's army is based on.

Look at the coup they just pulled off in Colorado. They've introduced almost word for word duplicates into the Florida state legislature, and more, I'm sure.

There's 20 bills in the house and 20 in the senate (Fla. State, that is). Everything from the Bloomberg AWB to outlawing stand your ground, to that famous "anger management class card" to buy ammo.

Anonymous said...

I'll side with both Graybeard and Jay G on a the basic issues. I'll also agree with Borepatch on conceptual issues.

1) The Big Dollar Anti-Rights folks get a lot of press, that's a given - the media supports the anti-rights agenda.

2) Gun rights are a foundation-level data point for both individual rights and the elimination of individual rights. It must be understood that the 2nd Amendment is the pivot point for all other individual rights; without 2A there is no structure to support any other individual rights.
3)We're in a tipping point-level environment: What we're seeing is the last gasp of the statists. They succeed here or they fail completely.

The Euro, fantasy that it has been, is about to dive into the dustbin of history. There will be great angst, some of which will infect the US, but in 12-24 months Europe will be returning to the currencies of individual countries. That will NOT be a painless process.

That does not mean that some, perhaps many, countries, will demonstrate an understanding of basic economic principles. Such understanding comes in cycles, and I perceive we are in a "down cycle" of understanding. That will be overcome in time, but not without a certain level of discomfort for all involved.

My perception is that 2014 will be a watershed year: the ramifications of Obamacare will be fully felt,the tax structure changes will present full impact, the political impact of corrupt Democrats and spineless, corruption-enabling Republicans will manifest itself, and Americans everywhere will, by force, be compelled to finally understand where their destinies lie.

November 2014 will direct a massive change, or Spring 2015 will see either the final demise of America or a true, gunfire-in-the-streets revolution that returns the country to its Constitutional roots.

I await the outcome.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

Not only do Red and Purple state Dems think they can get away with this. Red state GOP thinks they can vote for onerous gun control

Chris said...

Unfortunately, I will agree with T-bolt. Now, both of us live in VERY blue-state Maryland, which colors our thinking somewhat, but I have read comments by some secure-seat Republicans, like the Manchurian Senator McCain, that indicate they are quite willing to help disarm the peasants.

Obamacare was passed despite much public opposition, and going back to the Bush administration, the first bailout was immensely unpopular. Contempt for the public runs deep and wide in DC; it's a bipartisan issue.

Oh, and the shock troops of the Padishah Emperor in "Dune" were the Sardaukar. The fedayeen were their opposite numbers for Duke Paul Muad-Dib. Neither took prisoners unless they wanted one for questioning. I have no questions for Congress. Vote them ALL out.

SiGraybeard said...

D'oh!!

Thank you Chris! How could I get that so wrong?!? Mayor McFascist is so much the pint-sized Emperor, (little man syndrome?), we need to heap the scorn on him he so richly deserves.

It's one Alinsky's rules: ridicule.

TOTWTYTR said...

I think your analysis is spot on. There are a lot of Democrat seats in red states up for grabs already.

Harry Reid, for all his faults, comes from a pro gun state. As you note, he can count too.

I know that JayG and Greybeard are nervous and by now means do I think we should let our guard down.

There will be some action at some state levels, but New York and Colorado might be instructional to other states when the fall out really starts to hit.

Mrs. TOTWTYTR and other middle aged women I know are suddenly getting the concealed carry licenses. They may or may not carry guns, but they want to be able to.

Democrats have to be looking at that demographic shift and getting nervous.

Jester said...

I think you are spot on in a conceptual sort of way, but I point to the most recent election as a reminder that there is a huge portion of the electorate that does not care. We can slice off the Gun Issue and look directly at Obama Care. When the supreme court states it is okay for this to be in place, people assume that is the law of the land no matter how poorly the law is written. These baristas and others that you mention that will suddenly feel the pinch will have someone to blame, The Retardagain party or the evil rich. The media will see to that, and the media is the only reason the Democrats have not been fully obliterated. Just see how Elizabeth Warren was reelected even with the whole Indian incident.
Now I know that was in a very blue state, but as we seen in Colorado the blue state model is much like a virus or a parasite. When they wreck one state/economy they go elsewhere en mass and do the same thing all over again.
Back to the fire arms thing, I think Reid is a lot smarter than anyone thinks. I see him stating he cant pass anything in the Senate as a passing of the baton to the individual states, like New York or Colorado. States having the ultimate rights to set their own laws to either disregard National ones or make their own is a double edge sword. Pick off the east and west cost states and a smattering of the fly overs like mine, Minnesota and Colorado and suddenly the Liberals get what they want, till they move to another state.

drjim said...

As long as the Damnocrats and the Obamantion keep pushing their "progressive" agenda and totally ignoring the RIGHTS of American citizens, they keep driving more and more people away from them.

As you say, Obamacare hits full-force next year, and combined with all the other assaults on our rights, I can only borrow a quote from an historical figure.

"I fear they have awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve".

Let our resolve be to-the-core.