Monday, May 24, 2010

Deter

Short of a Police State, how do you maintain law and order? It's simply too expensive to have cop on every street corner (particularly with the public sector pension problem); instead, police rely on a layered approach to public safety:

1. Deter. If criminals reasonably believe that they are likely to be apprehended and successfully prosecuted, some simply will not commit crimes that otherwise they would. This stage is the most valuable in the entire process: not only do you save on the costs of pre-trial and post trial incarceration (not to mention the cost of the trial itself), the public does not bear the private costs of loss of life, health, or property. This stage is a massive win, if it's effective.

2. Prevent. If you can't keep the criminal from committing the deed, the next best thing is to stop him just as he is beginning his attempt. Not only do you "catch him red handed", if you catch him before he causes private damage, those costs are minimized. This clearly isn't as good as the previous stage, but it's better than nothing.

3. Detect. It's said that the "perfect crime" is the one that is never discovered. If you have a criminal class, you don't want them to think that they can (repeatedly) get away with serious crime. Catching the bums and throwing them into Durance Vile will at least get a known bad apple off the street.

The essential strategy behind Rudy Giuliani's "Broken Windows" policing was to shift resources from #2 and #3 to #1. Deterrence has a massive force multiplier effect.

That effect runs both ways, though, when resources are shifted away from deterrence. Not only are immigration laws not enforced, but many cities actively prevent them from being enforced, for political reasons. Boston is one of those cities, where both the city and the state have made it impossible for the police to inquire about immigration status.

So what should we expect to happen as resources are shifted from deterrence to prevention and detection? Less effective policing, resulting in higher rates of crime, injury, and death. And what do we see? Just this, happening not only to the great unwashed masses, but to the Ruling Class as well:

[Massachusetts] State Rep. Mike Moran of Brighton was rear-ended by a suspected illegal immigrant this week. The suspect was wearing a Mexican costume at the time of the crash where he slammed into Moran at 60 mph.

The suspect, 27-year-old Isaias Naranjo, was charged with driving under the influence of alcohol, leaving the scene of an accident and driving without a valid license. According to the report, when told of the serious charges he would be facing, he just laughed.

The system is a laughingstock. While Mr. Naranjo likely reacted from his prior fortification with Dutch Courage, he has ample reason to think that he will suffer no serious consequences:
A default warrant was issued for the arrest of an elderly Rhode Island man today after he failed to show up for his arraignment on charges of groping a young boy in a Raynham supermarket.

“I’m shocked - completely shocked,” Raynham Police Chief Lou Pacheco said of Valerio Rodriguez’ no-show at Taunton District Court today.

Raynham police had charged Rodriguez, 71, of Providence, a Market Basket janitor, with indecently touching a 4-year-old boy in the store’s bathroom on June 1.
I'm shocked - shocked - that Mr. Rodriguez had returned to his native Guatemala. So riddle me this, Batman: why should Mr. Naranjo fear consequences for a DUI fender bender when there are no consequences for sexual assault on a child?

[What's that? You say that the victim this time was a member of the Ruling Class? Full marks to you for your keen grasp on the workings of the system, but remember that we're discussing police deterrence. As such, your perceptive thought is off topic.]

So what happens to the idea of deterrence when it becomes known to all that the laws will not be enforced? Let's see: the Times Square Bomber is said to have been aided by a man from Boston. A man with an interesting history:
In an alarming example of how sanctuary cities can protect terrorists, a Pakistani man arrested for the Time Square bombing admitted on a city license application that he entered the U.S. illegally and authorities took no action.

That’s because he applied for the cabbie license in a state (Massachusetts) that openly protects illegal immigrants from deportation. Local law enforcement agencies throughout Massachusetts have don’t-ask-don’t-tell policies regarding illegal aliens and in this case the Boston Police Department has for years known that the terrorist, So Pir Khan, was in the country illegally.[My emphasis - Borepatch]
The libertarian side of the blogosphere dismisses this as irrelevant:
Truth is, illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native Americans. Most come here to work, and in their desire to stay, they are generally afraid to do anything that might draw the attention of armed people wearing badges.
What's missing from this analysis? How many come here not to stay, but to make some money before "going home"? How many come to stay, but not to assimilate - rather, to remain inside a comfortable non-American social bubble where Anglos are seen as outsiders or even oppressors?

What do you lose when this happens? Social cohesion, a shared sense of community, and (sometimes) a reluctance to view society as prey. The effectiveness of deterrence.

There is a vast experiment under way, one that has never been attempted on these shores before. This country has an enviable track record of assimilating immigrants from all over the world, but did so under a different set of rules than are in play today. Past generations of immigrants did indeed keep their noses clean, because they were here to stay, and to become Americans. The rules today make it possible to stay, and not become American.
Most come here to work, and in their desire to stay, they are generally afraid to do anything that might draw the attention of armed people wearing badges.
Really? I'm willing to listen, and keep an open mind. However, we see illegals with ties to terrorists, illegals sexually assaulting children, and drunken illegals rear-ending stopped cars at 60 MPH. And then laughing about it. And lest you accuse me of cherry picking data, all of these occurred within 50 miles of Chez Borepatch.

Deterrence: ur doin' it rong. Look at the old New York City to see what that leads to.

2 comments:

Paul, Dammit! said...

Interesting thoughts... I wonder what a 'Mexican costume' is? Did the guy step out of the car in a bullfighter outfit, or was he wearing a 6' diameter sombrero and black pointy-toed boots?

One thing that's not pointed out, but poignant to me is that the Social Security program benefits enormously from illegals- literally millions of workers pay into the US Social security and Medicaid programs, without ever having the hope of being paid out of them. Although there's presumably a zero-net sum here, it's not apparent, since federal spending programs are allocated ahead of time; we've actually got a generation (the boomers) who are reliant on moneys generated by illegal immigrants for their public-tit income. Most illegals hide in plain sight, workwise, using false SS numbers. This protects employers, who can claim ignorance.
Economically speaking, it seems to me that this is a layered quandry, especially in MA.

Anonymous said...

Remember that numpty who vandalized cars in Singapore (was it?) and got caned for it? I saw how they do it there, and if I find myself in that country, I'll do what the sign says!

(To speak to your point on deterrence)

Jim